According to opening lines published by betonline.ag, Covington is a heavy favorite at -325 over +275 Masvidal heading into their headliner at UFC 272, which takes place March 5 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and airs live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
The -325 odds reflect an implied winning probability of 76 percent. A $100 wager on Covington would return $30.77, while the same bet on Masvidal would return $275 with an implied winning probability of 27 percent.
The gap between Covington and Masvidal has widened since bookmakers first released odds on a potential fight in December 2020, with Covington a -140 favorite over +110 Masvidal. That was before Masvidal’s brutal knockout loss at the hands of current champ Kamaru Usman, who’s beaten the welterweights twice each since 2019. Covington’s most recent meeting with Usman took place this past November and ended in a unanimous decision loss after their first meeting ended in a TKO loss.
Masvidal and Covington bring a long history to the fight as former teammates and roommates at American Top Team, where Covington first trained as a collegiate wrestler turned fighter. The two had a very public falling out after Covington won the interim title and have since talked up a fight and exchanged insults in interviews. ATT created a rule against trash-talking teammates, and Covington later left the gym and severed ties while Masvidal continued to defend the gym, which took steps to separate the rivals as they threatened violence against each other.